Aplicación de un Modelo Multinomial Logístico con Categorías Ordinales y Binarias para Estudiar los Homicidios Producidos en el Valle del Cauca Durante los Años 2016 al 2019

Abstract

Homicide is a problem that has been latent in Valle del Cauca for many decades and has greatly permeated the history of this department; Located in the Colombian Pacific. Homicides (or also called intentional deaths or violent deaths) are events that are carried out for many reasons; that are associated with the settling of accounts, quarrels, theft, etc. This social situation, being so important, draws the attention of the national and international media every year due to its homicide rates and rates, which are sometimes worrying. For this reason, in this research an ordinal logistic multinomial model with different categories is implemented to analyze and characterize the violent deaths that occurred in the department of Valle del Cauca, Colombia, during the short period between 2016 and 2019. of schooling (illiterate, primary, secondary, technical/technologist and higher education) reached by the victims; It is proposed to model and identify the factors associated with these deaths and understand their influence and incidence in the region. Data from official sources are collected and relevant variables such as demographic, socioeconomic and geographical characteristics of the municipalities of Valle del Cauca are considered. These data areused to develop and fit the model, which allows one to examine the relationships between the predictor variables. The ordinal logistic multinomial model uses classical inferential statistical techniques and generalized linear models to estimate model parameters and provide uncertainty measures. for these estimates. The analysis of the results contributes to a better understanding of the factors associated with violent deaths in the region and provides valuable information for the design of social policies and crime prevention and control strategies in Valle del Cauca.