Análisis de los Ahorros Fiscales mediante Modelo de Simulación Continua, calculados según el descuento de flujos de fondos y en función del sistema tributario
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Universidad Santo Tomás, Bogotá, Colombia
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Un importante componente del valor del modelo de descuento de flujo de fondos se encuentra dado por los escudos fiscales derivados de la deuda, los cuales están condicionados por los sistemas tributarios, variando en función al grado de integración entre renta societaria y personal. En la teoría, las propuestas desarrolladas son conocidas como modelo clásico, modelo clásico con imposición a la renta personal y modelo general. El último se caracteriza por su versatilidad, aunque los de mayor difusión y aplicación son los dos primeros. El trabajo desarrolla el cálculo del valor mediante la alternativa de los tres modelos, que son aplicables en los sistemas tributarios de países miembros de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE), así como en países de Latinoamérica (LATAM), y sus adaptaciones al modelo. Mediante el análisis de casos, utilizando simulación estocástica continua, se deriva el valor de la firma apalancada bajo los tres modelos. Los resultados obtenidos aportan evidencia relacionada con los errores de valoración, al aplicar modelos clásicos en relación con el general, sin considerar la expresión acorde al sistema tributario.
A key component of the value of the cash flow discount model is given by the tax shields derived from the debt, which are conditioned by the tax systems, varying according to the degree of integration between corporate and personal income. In theory, the proposals developed are known as: Classic Model, Classic Model with personal income tax, and General Model. The latter is characterized by its versatility, although the most widely spread and applied are the former. The work develops the calculation of the value through the alternative of the three models, applicable in the tax systems of member countries of the OECD and LATAM and their adaptations. Through case analysis, using continuous stochastic simulation, the value of the leveraged firm is derived under the three models. The results obtained provide evidence related to the valuation errors, when applying classic models in relation to the general one, without considering the expression according to the tax system.
A key component of the value of the cash flow discount model is given by the tax shields derived from the debt, which are conditioned by the tax systems, varying according to the degree of integration between corporate and personal income. In theory, the proposals developed are known as: Classic Model, Classic Model with personal income tax, and General Model. The latter is characterized by its versatility, although the most widely spread and applied are the former. The work develops the calculation of the value through the alternative of the three models, applicable in the tax systems of member countries of the OECD and LATAM and their adaptations. Through case analysis, using continuous stochastic simulation, the value of the leveraged firm is derived under the three models. The results obtained provide evidence related to the valuation errors, when applying classic models in relation to the general one, without considering the expression according to the tax system.
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continuous simulation model, discounted cash flow, tax systems, tax savings, modelo de simulación continua, descuento flujo de fondos, sistemas tributarios, ahorros fiscales
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0