Implementación de Metodologías Estadísticas para Pronósticos de Vivienda en Bogotá

Abstract

The acquisition of housing has been something essential for miles of years, since humans stopped being nomads and decided to settle in a specific place, additionally with the capitalist system the houses stopped being only significant to live, they also became one big business. This is due to the fact that it moves large sums of money and is one of the least risky businesses, but on the other hand it is not usually very profitable, because proportionally it does not present a large increase in price, additionally there is no information about which housing transfers are those that are going to have a greater appreciation, or what characteristics are the most relevant on determining the final price of the property, whether it is the area, the social stratum, the number of rooms, or another that may not be so obvious. In this work, different statistical methodologies will be implemented in order to have a better understanding of what characteristics determine the value of the property, but for this it is necessary to obtain as much information as possible about the characteristics of the apartments and their price. This could be done thanks to the fact that the real estate gallery provided its databases, which have been collecting information on the properties of various cities in the country since 2002. With this information, a better perspective and a clearer and more precise idea about which are the most important factors when determining the price of houses in Bogotá, implementing different statistical methodologies, among those models of multiple linear regression, ridge and lasso regression, closest neighbors, \ 'regression trees \' on, random forest and multilayer neural networks, and at the end compare the results obtained between them, to determine which is the best methodology to determine the house price in Bogotá. After determining which is the best model and obtaining its results, it is possible to make better decisions when investing in a home, because having greater knowledge about which variables are most important when determining the price of a home, a better investment can be made, by making better use of money, using the least amount and in return obtaining the highest valuation. Additionally, people who wish to use their savings to buy an apartment, will be able to use this information to find apartments with desired characteristics at the best price and have a clearer idea of ​​the real values ​​of the prices of the houses, in order not to pay more than it should.