Transformación del uso del suelo agropecuario por procesos de ganaderización en Colombia durante el periodo 2017-2019

Abstract

The agricultural sector in Colombia plays a crucial role in the country's economic development. However, conflicts in land use persist, mainly associated with livestock activities, which affect agricultural production. The inefficient allocation of land in Colombia is reflected in the fact that 67.59% of the territory has an appropriate land use, while 13.07% is underutilized and 15.54% is overutilized. This situation highlights significant problems of land degradation and underuse, particularly in the departments of Sucre, Atlántico, Norte de Santander, Caldas, Santander, and Tolima (IGAC, 2014). In this context, through the application of Simultaneous Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) models and compositional data analysis techniques, this study aims to identify changes in agricultural land use in Colombia and evaluate their correspondence with land suitability during the 2017–2019 period. The results reveal the existence of significant spatial patterns in land-use transformation, confirming the expansion of livestock activities into areas traditionally used for agriculture, especially in regions under high productive pressure. Agricultural production is found to increase the proportion of agricultural land (β ≈ 0.31), while reducing the proportion of land allocated to livestock. Likewise, cultivated area, harvested area, and crop yield have positive effects on the proportion of agricultural land, highlighting the importance of planning, technological improvement, and productive efficiency. Finally, the study shows that, despite public policies aimed at curbing livestock expansion, no significant progress has been achieved in protecting conservation areas or reducing the underutilization of agricultural land. Consequently, by 2019, a decline in these areas is observed across several regions of the country, mainly attributable to livestock expansion, forest conversion into pastureland, infrastructure development, and the presence of illicit activities.