Prospectiva del gasto público en pensiones en Colombia del régimen de prima media: Una mirada desde sus componentes macroeconómicos, demográficos y su coyuntura bajo modelación cuantitativa

Abstract

It is relevant having to calculate the resources needed by the state to comply with regulations pension scheme average premium. Within the development of this work it is to make a prediction and appropriate calculations thereof, based on the variables that identify rates of population aging and other variables that affect public spending and thus the amount of resources that the state must engaging way of calculation and thus maintain resources and guarantee pensions scheme. Some indices, presented based on the percentage of GDP, it indicates the proportion of resources that can generate the productivity of the country, but all linked with growth rates in line with the current situation of the Colombian population, turns out to be a complicated task given the characterization of the population and the impact that has survival for gender or sex, and even on the parameters maintaining retirement age or retirement. For this, the present study proposes assessing a mannered the incidence of variables, in order to make individual predictions of socio-demographic variables that can affect the calculation spending and then consolidate them in order to establish in the short term possible forecast also is necessary to identify the historical behavior and current diagnosis of the variables and subsequent projection in time. All this is valued under scenarios that allow econometric predictions give an idea about the magnitude or volume of public spending for the national government in the coming years. So, this analysis makes a forecast of fiscal expenditure for pensions for the next 5 years, by the estimation of the Colombian population and other social variables that has the account of the pension system together with and increased income personal, keys for calculating pensions factors above, referencing different possible scenarios, and then identifying the conclusions on the model and the results that this throw to serve as support in the process of making decisions on reform or viability of the current scheme, which means a contribution in terms of public policy.