Acercamiento al comercio entre Colombia y Japón usando técnicas multivariadas para el período enero 2001 diciembre 2018

Abstract

Japan for being one of the main economies in the world, represents a great opportunity for Colombian exporters, who historically have focused their sights on closer markets such as the US and the European. However, Asia is destined to be the continent with the highest growth in food demand. Although China, due to its size, will attract many of the world’s exports, Japan, thanks to its economic and business dynamics, has one of the highest per capita income in the world, which allows them to acquire products at good prices, which by definition, must have the best quality.

Statistically, some approximations have been made to that market, but more of the descriptive order. In this project we seek to show how the Japanese market would be affected with Colombian exports, through a multivariate analysis.

In general terms, through the use of economic indicators used in other studies, we will seek to identify those non-traditional products that are exported by Colombia and that are of interest to the Japanese market. By definition we will not include those products that have their own dynamics with the Japanese market such as coffee, coal and flowers, which today together represent 85 % of Colombian annual exports to Japan.

The aim is to validate by means of the SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregressive) econometric methodo- logy, how Japanese imports will be affected with the greater income of Colombian products, which will ultimately boost the Colombian economy, improving its trade balance that is generally deficient with most of the countries in the world.