Ruta estratégica para el análisis de la competitividad y la sofisticación del aparato productivo nacional en el marco del TLC con Estados Unidos (2012–2025)

Abstract

This monography analyzes the impact of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Colombia and the United States on the trade balance and the strategic challenges of the Colombian business sector from 2006 to 2025. From a Business Administration perspective, the study evaluates if the agreement has helped to improve competitiveness and export diversification or if it has increased structural dependence on primary goods. The central question focuses on how the agreement influenced the concentration of raw materials and what management tools are necessary to strengthen the national industry. The research uses a mixed methodology with a descriptive and analytical approach. Administrative diagnostic tools, such as the PESTEL matrix and Porter's Five Forces, are applied to examine the macroeconomic environment and the competitive position of Colombian companies. The study makes a special emphasis on the structural vulnerabilities of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), analysing the barriers that limit their transition toward products with higher value-added and technological content. The diagnosis shows that the FTA has produced asymmetric results. While certain sectors like flowers and coffee have succeeded, the overall export basket remains highly concentrated in primary goods. This situation makes the economy vulnerable to the volatility of international prices. Technical indicators, such as the negative growth of Total Factor Productivity (PTF) at -1.56% in 2024 and the low business survival rates of individuals (30%) compared to corporations (44%), highlight the need for a productive transformation. Furthermore, the end of the protection periods for sensitive products in 2026 creates an urgent challenge for operational stability. The strategic proposal suggests a "dual-board" policy. The first board focuses on deepening the relationship with the United States through nearshoring and friendshoring, integrating SMEs into regional supply chains that demand high quality and ESG standards. The second board proposes a planned diversification toward emerging markets, especially in Asia. This expansion must avoid the "coal trap" and focus on sophisticated goods like specialized services and biotechnology Historia de la conversation]. Finally, these guidelines aim to reduce operational risks and ensure the long-term sustainability of the Colombian business fabric.