Modelación Del Impacto Por Cambio De Uso Del Suelo Sobre El Comportamiento Hidrológico De La Subcuenca Del Río Quindío Bajo Los Escenarios 2000, 2020 Y 2040

Abstract

Land use and land cover changes are one of the drivers of the decrease in water supply in watersheds; therefore, it’s important to understand how these changes occur and to perform prospective analysis to determine the influence of such changes in the future. The foregoing can be carried out through the application of models and simulations based on geographic information and can be key tools for decision-making in land use planning. This document presents the results obtained from modeling the impact of land use change on the hydrological behavior of the Quindío River sub-basin. To begin, the coverage classification of the study area was carried out for the years 2000 and 2020, using remote sensing tools; Subsequently, the CA-Markov model was used to generate a coverage prediction map for the year 2040, from the two classified images and complementary parameters defined alongside with institutional actors. According to this, the coverage trends in the sub-basin were identified, and a hydrological modeling for the different land use scenarios was performed, using the SWAT tool. The simulation showed that by the year 2040, the Quindío River sub-basin will present a greater variability in its minimum and maximum flows throughout the year; indicating a greater susceptibility to extreme weather events.