Estimación del Porcentaje de Afiliación a Seguridad Social en Salud en Bogotá, Utilizando Modelos de Estimación en Áreas Pequeñas con Información Auxiliar Medida con Error

Abstract

Small area estimation is a methodology used to produce reliable estimates of a characteristic of interest by incorporating auxiliary information through a model, thereby improving the accuracy of direct estimates. Since in many cases this auxiliary information contains measurement error, it becomes necessary to account for this component in the proposed model. The application is carried out using the Bogotá Multipurpose Survey – EM (2021), in order to obtain relevant and reliable information on the percentage of health social security affiliation across different life stages, which makes it possible to identify population groups that may have specific medical care needs. Estimating the percentage of affiliation to health social security is crucial for informed decision-making and the design of public policies in Colombia, especially in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as promoting health and well-being, reducing inequalities, and ensuring universal health coverage. The proposed methodology allows for comparisons between direct estimates and those generated by the model, to determine which are the most accurate and useful. This not only improves the quality of the available data but also strengthens the District’s capacity to respond to the needs of its population more effectively and equitably.