Evaluación de las alternativas de decisión de una empresa de exploración petrolera sobre la conveniencia de contratar un estudio de evaluación de riesgo utilizando un modelo de decisión

Abstract

In this degree project, the objective was to evaluate the alternatives faced by a Colombian oil company in the exploration stage, considering the most optimal route in terms of cost reduction when determining the convenience and relevance for such a company of contract or not a risk assessment study. Three types of forecasts were defined for the investigation, which were: Low Risk Forecast (RB), Medium Irrigation Forecast (RM), and High-Risk Forecast (RA), and in turn events to represent possible states of nature given the Forecasts stated which were: Basic Pollution Level (CB), Medium Pollution Level (CM), and High Pollution Level (CA). To the above, decision nodes such as If to hire a risk analysis study and don’t hire a study risk analysis. For the development, the following aspects were defined: mainly, criteria of specialists were agreed in order to consolidate valuations for a priori and conditional probabilities, and economic amounts associated with each event defined in conjunction with the experts, then the process of decision making using the Savage criterion under conditions of uncertainty, and finally, the problem raised in the study was configured in decision tree structures for two different scenarios: the first scenario with a priori information, and the second scenario with information a posteriori. The graphing of each tree was possible through the implementation of the WINQSB software for 32Bits. The results allowed under conditions of uncertainty to identify as an optimal decision not to hire the risk study, while, a priori to the decision to carry out the prior study of risk analysis and subsequently to validate what was already identified a priori