Análisis de la Variabilidad Espacio - Temporal de la Precipitación y Su Impacto en la Modelación Hidrológica: Aplicación del Modelo SHIA en la Subcuenca del Río de Oro

Abstract

Water resource management and natural disaster prevention in the Río de Oro sub-basin rely significantly on the accuracy of hydrological modeling, which is affected by the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation. This study assessed the impact of such variability on hydrological modeling with the SHIA model, with the aim of optimizing decision-making in the planning and construction of infrastructure along the river channel. A quantitative-explanatory approach was employed, which included the characterization of the study area, the collection and validation of hydrometeorological and geospatial data, the configuration and calibration of the SHIA model, and the simulation of hydrological scenarios using spatial interpolation techniques such as Kriging and IDW. The results revealed how different spatial scales of precipitation data influence the accuracy of streamflow simulations, providing recommendations to improve the quality of hydrological studies, particularly those submitted to the Corporación Autónoma Regional para la Defensa de la Meseta de Bucaramanga (CDMB). This analysis contributes to more efficient and sustainable water resource management in the region, reducing uncertainty in decision-making and strengthening environmental planning processes.