Air traffic forecast in post-liberalization context: a dynamic linear models approach
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2020-05-28
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gruplac
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Abstract
The process of air transport liberalization in Colombia began in 1991. Liberalization entailed the entry of private
capital into the airport sector which subsequently led, in several temporary phases, to the privatization of the country’s
main airports. Simultaneously, new air operators entered the market. This new market situation, supported by the complete
deregulation of airfares, generated a dynamic and sustained growth of air transport in Colombia for two decades. Within
the context of post-liberalization, this article presents a forecast (medium-term – 5 years period) of air traffic in the country’s main airport using DLMs (Dynamic Linear Models). It has the following advantages vs. the usual forecast calculation
methodologies: it detects stochastic tendencies that are hidden in the time series. It also detects structural changes that
allow estimating the variable effect of exogenous shocks over time without increasing the number of parameters. From the
results obtained, it should be noted that the application of DLMs presents MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values
below 1%, which guarantees predictions of higher accuracy and thus introduces a new alternative model to develop reliable
forecasts in air transport, at least in the medium-term.
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Rodriguez, Y., Pineda, W., & Diaz Olariaga, O. (2020). Air traffic forecast in post-liberalization context: a Dynamic Linear Models approach. Aviation, 24(1), 10-19. https://doi.org/10.3846/aviation.2020.12273
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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia