Análisis espacio-temporal de la producción agrícola 2007-2040 en los departamentos de la región Orinoquía Colombiana.

Abstract

The Orinoquia region is experiencing notable growth in the agricultural sector, characterized by an exponential expansion thanks to the diversification and intensification of its agro-productive activities, which have physical and resource limitations if they are not developed sustainably. The objective of this study is to analyze the historical behavior of agricultural production in the departments of the Colombian Orinoquía region, to determine the projection of trend growth, accelerated and low growth, compared to the maximum expansion capacity of these activities in 2040 considering the agricultural frontier as a limiting factor. To carry out this research, two phases were carried out; first: use of the Tree of Science algorithm with the SCOPUS platform for the collection of high-impact scientific articles; second: the spatiotemporal analysis of agricultural production in the departments of Arauca, Casanare, Meta and Vichada, in the period from 2007 to 2040, based on data that were extracted from official data sources of the country. The results have allowed us to identify that the crops with the largest area currently planted are; banana (37.1%) and cocoa (21.5%) in Arauca, rice (65.6%) and oil palm (26.5%) in Casanare, oil palm (35.6%) and corn (16.4%) in Meta and finally oil palm (38.9%) and cashew (37.2%) in Vichada. Likewise, the departments with a greater tendency to increase future production are Meta and Casanare, which will cover 21.4% and 17.4% of their agricultural borders by 2040. In conclusion, agricultural development in the region is crucial and must consider the Agricultural Frontier. The statistical analysis highlights the relevance of oil palm among other crops and the need to promote sustainable practices for equitable and environmentally conscious development in the region.