Determinantes macroeconómicos del riesgo de impago en créditos de vivienda de interés social –vis en Bogotá, en el periodo 2003-2015

Abstract

This investigation inquires about the situation of the risk of default in VIS mortgage loans in Bogotá in the period between 2003 and 2015 to identify the macroeconomic variables that influenced their behavior. To achieve this, writings of several authors are considered, where political, social and economic problems are enunciated in order to find relationships between the behavior of these variables and the non-payment of obligations, and in the future we can intervene and avoid the occurrence of the event. In addition, it seeks to answer if the current problems respond to a conjunctural situation or, if they represent structural limits of this type of production. An error correction model and response impulse function analysis with quarterly periodicity data for the period 2003-2015 for Bogotá, published by the habitat secretary, is performed to obtain sufficient empirical evidence of the proposed hypothesis. The results allow to provide evidence of the presence of three cointegration vectors among the studied variables and suggest that after abrupt alterations in indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, UVR and salaries, the quality of the loan portfolio (past due portfolio) VIS in the city of Bogotá. Also, it was concluded that the existence of default in this type of obligations is due to structural causes. With the proposed methodology, you can work to include other types of credit from the Financial System and also make suggestions for timely intervention to avoid economic crises.