Asociación entre el Efecto Multicontaminante y la Mortalidad Cardiopulmonar en la Localidad de San Cristóbal, Bogotá 2010-2014

Abstract

Objective: to analyze and quantify the risk generated by the multi-pollutant effect of atmospheric pollutants on cardiopulmonary mortality in the town of San Cristóbal, Bogotá in the 2010-2014 period. Methodology: an ecological study of time series was carried out in the town of San Cristóbal between 2010-2014, where a Poisson statistical model was used. Taking into account stratified age groups: under 1 year, 1 to 5 years, 6 to 14 years, 15 to 64 and over 65 years. For the Poisson model, the data recorded by the Bogota Air Quality Monitoring Network were used, where the daily averages were estimated 24 hours and also maximum averages according to the type of pollutant (PM10, PM 2,5, O3, CO and SO2), in addition to adjusting the models by meteorological variables such as temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The Secretary of Health of Bogotá provided the mortality database for cardiopulmonary, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases for this locality. Results: it was observed that carbon monoxide (CO) in its maximum hourly average combined with SO2 in its maximum average of 24 hours increases the risk of mortality in most of the pathologies studied, being statistically significant.The pathology that presented the greatest statistical significance was respiratory infection of the lower airways; for all age groups, an increase of 0.01 ppm of CO in the maximum hourly average combined with SO2 in its maximum average of 24 hours increases the risk of mortality by 0.77% (95%CI: 0.11; 1, 44) and by an increase of 0.01 ppm of CO in the maximum hourly average combined with the maximum average of 3 hours of SO2, increases the risk of mortality by 0.68% (95%CI: 0.007, 1.37). In addition, there was an increase of 1.93% (95%CI: 0,15;3,74) of the risk due to an increase of 0.01 ppm of CO in the maximum hourly average in lag 4 and an increase of 4.68% (95% CI: 0,004;9,59) in mortality in lag 1-5, this for the age group under 14 years of age. Conclusions: the results show significant evidence between the association of carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide especially for respiratory mortality. Regarding this mortality, it was observed that the age group of children under 14 years of age presents a higher risk of respiratory mortality.