Prospectiva del crecimiento sostenible de la industria de hidrocarburos en el Meta

Abstract

The research analyzed the potential for sustainable growth in the hydrocarbon industry of the Meta Department, a region that concentrates more than 50% of Colombia’s oil production and represents a strategic axis for the national economy. Although this sector has boosted fiscal and economic development, it has also caused significant environmental and social impacts related to deforestation, water pollution, and biodiversity loss. In this context, the study aimed to identify the key factors that condition the sector’s sustainability and to project future development scenarios to guide territorial planning and environmental management. The methodological approach combined qualitative and quantitative tools, applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the MICMAC (Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification) method to prioritize and analyze relationships among strategic variables, along with Peter Schwartz’s prospective scenario approach to outline medium- and long-term development pathways. As indicated by Barati et al. (2019), the integration of AHP and MICMAC allows for a more comprehensive understanding of sustainability factors and their systemic interactions. The results reveal that the driving variables with the greatest influence are environmental management, technological innovation, regulatory stability, and community participation, whereas the dependent variables include economic dynamics, international demand, and institutional capacity. These interactions demonstrate that improvements in environmental performance drive technological modernization and institutional strengthening, generating a virtuous cycle of sustainability (Brătucu et al., 2017; Bekun et al., 2019). The most relevant factors identified through the AHP were the environmental factor (49%) and the economic factor (26%), confirming that the sector’s growth is only feasible when profitability and ecological conservation are balanced (Danish & Wang, 2018). Consequently, the desirable scenario is characterized by high levels of environmental management and technological advancement, representing the most appropriate pathway toward a competitive and sustainable energy model. This research demonstrates that applied foresight is a key tool for anticipating risks and enhancing strategic decision-making. The results provide technical and methodological insights for developing policies and strategies aimed at achieving an economically viable, environmentally responsible, and socially inclusive hydrocarbon sector in the Meta region, reinforcing the notion that sustainability relies on the integration of innovation, production efficiency, and environmental protection (Ahmad et al., 2019; Choi & Turk, 2006).