Un acercamiento a la sustitución de cultivos ilícitos para Colombia, con enfoque en Puerto Rico, Caquetá

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to find an strategy to revive the agricultural sector in Puerto Rico, Caquetá: an econometric estimation of data panel was made in order to perform a dynamic analysis of the relationship between some Colombian agricultural products such as plantain, cassava, maize, cane, rice, cocoa and coffee with coca leaf crops between 2007 And 2014. The main objective is to capture the unobservable heterogeneity in agricultural production data obtained from the National Agricultural and Livestock Census 2014 of DANE and the Coca Crop Cultivation Census 2014 of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), in order to find a solution that responds to the productive structures of the northern region of Caquetá and that allows to offer a different production alternative to the illicit products extracted from the coca leaf. The lack of infrastructure and a productive linkage allowed decisions made with respect to the opportunity cost that lead to the production of illicit crops. An analysis carried out suggests that the substitutes could be maize and cassava under specific conditions given, taking into account the historic production trends and the utilization of the land. Implicit in this land use was the inclusion of central government level policies.