Estudio de la vulnerabilidad climática del recurso hídrico de la cuenca del río Pamplonita

Abstract

The project assesses the vulnerability of the surface water resource of the Pamplonita River basin to climate change scenarios, established by the IPCC as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), the selected scenarios were CPR 2.6, CPR 4.5 and CPR 8.5 for the periods 2015 to 2040, 2041 to 2070 and 2071 to 2100; of the CCSM4 global circulation model, which was scaled down by means of a statistical method based on chaos theory. Therefore, Hydro-IDB was used to generate future flows and, impacts on the hydrological regime produced by climate change were analyzed, using the Water Regulation Index (IRH), Water Use Index (IUA) and Water Index Vulnerability to shortages (IVH) using the ENA 2014 methodology, where mitigation measures were established. Finally, it was obtained as a result that for the three scenarios there is a possible increase in water availability with respect to historical records, of 63.3%, 92.9% and 91.3% for CPR 2.6, for CPR 4.5 of 91.3%, 86.3 % and 65.8% and finally CPR 8.5 of 91.3%, 95.8% and 85.4%, therefore, the simulation results show that the IRH is very high and the IUA high indicating that the basin has a medium vulnerability to the three scenarios of climate change; where the exhaustive demand of the water resource by the municipalities present in the basin was identified as a possible impact, for which, it was considered as a mitigation measure to prioritize and establish the uses of water taking into account the coordination and governance between the actors and Users from different sectors to restore and / or water availability.