Identificar las etapas en las cuales se presentan variaciones entre los presupuestos iniciales y finales reales de proyectos viales en Santander, a partir de la metodología de APU’s del INVIAS y su contraste con otras entidades de la contratación pública

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the variation between initial budgets and actual final costs of road infrastructure projects carried out in the department of Santander, using the Unit Price Analysis (UPA) methodologies employed by the National Roads Institute (INVIAS) and other public entities in the country as a reference. The research stems from the need to identify the causes of differences between the values estimated during the planning stage and the actual costs incurred, with the aim of strengthening contractual and budgetary management in public procurement. The study employs a comparative and descriptive approach, based on a documentary review of official budgets, institutional databases, and implementation reports for three road projects carried out in Santander between 2021 and 2024. Variables such as material costs, transportation, labor, yields, geographic location, and distance to supply sources were analyzed, applying INVIAS’s APU methodology and statistical tools such as measures of dispersion and trend analysis. The results show an average difference of 21.91% between initial budgets and final costs. The main factors contributing to this variance include increases in the price of asphalt, transportation costs, and discrepancies between projected performance and actual site conditions. Finally, technical guidelines and analytical tools are proposed to improve budget planning, transparency, and the financial sustainability of road projects.