Evaluacion del riesgo de fallo en el suministro de agua en cuencas andinas influenciadas por variabilidad climática y cambio climático – Caso de estudio cuenca del rio Balsillas

Abstract

This work is developed within the framework of the project. The assessment of the risk of failure in water supply in basins and climatic influences and climate change in conjunction with the Polytechnic University of Valencia and the University of Cuenca of Ecuador, however for the case of the study of the river basin Balsillas in the department of Cundinamarca, Colombia, assesses the risk of failure in water supply only in the conditions of climate change, through the implementation of hydrological models that serve as support for decision making regarding the satisfaction of the demands consumptive in times of scarcity. This means that it is a tool that uses hydrological tools such as the HydroBID software, and the SIMGES and SIMRISK water resource management models of the AQUATOOL decision support system. Flow series were obtained for a current scenario, as well as future projections, climate changes for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 for the climate model GCM MPI-ESM-MR and the Regional Coordination Experiment for Climate Reduction (CORDEX) ) of the MPI-ESM-MR by means of the reduction of the scale in the middle of a statistical method based on the chaos theory, posterior and the synthetic flow series will be obtained to determine the probability of failure in the system of the Middle basin of the ARIMA-GARCH statistical model corrected by median. The SIMGES and SIMRISK modules were applied in the AQUATOOL SSD software and where the synthetic series were entered, together with the consumption data in the area, the risk of failure function was identified in the conditions of climate change. It presents a deficit in the supply of water resources, the way that mitigation measures are implemented that reduces the risk and the power to satisfy their water demand.