Desarrollo de un análisis prospectivo de la producción de palma de aceite en el departamento del Meta, como estrategia de sostenibilidad

Abstract

Oil palm cultivation has become one of the most relevant globally, with significant economic, social, and environmental implications, especially in regions such as the department of Meta, Colombia. In this context, the present research aimed to develop a prospective analysis of oil palm production in this territory, in order to contribute to the sustainability of the sector. To achieve this, prospective methods such as MICMAC and MACTOR were applied to identify the most influential variables and strategic actors within the productive system, as well as the Simple Linear Regression method to project production, planted area, and harvested area over a ten-year period. The analysis was based on historical data from 2007 to 2023 provided by UPRA, complemented by territorial context analysis, agro-environmental aspects, previous studies, and technical information from the oil palm sector. The statistical analysis showed an R² of 0.917 for the projected production and 0.906 for the harvested area, both with excellent fit and high reliability. In contrast, the projection of the planted area presented an R² of 0.534, indicating greater variability and lower precision. Key variables such as investment in infrastructure, sustainability policies, and crop technification were identified, with industry associations, the State, and producers as the most influential actors. These results provide a solid foundation for formulating future scenarios and development strategies in Meta. In conclusion, this prospective study offers a comprehensive view of the scenarios for palm oil production in Meta. Factors such as investment in infrastructure, sustainability policies, and technification are key. A balanced approach that combines economic growth with environmental and social sustainability is required, especially in the expansion of the cultivated area and sustainable practices.