Efectos de la Contaminación del Aire sobre la Mortalidad Cardiopulmonar en la Localidad de Bosa, Bogotá, 2009-2014

Abstract

Objective: Estimate the association between the air pollution and the cardiopulmonary mortality, through an epidemiological study of times series in the Bosa locality in Bogotá City. Methods: An ecological study of time series between 2009 and 2014 was developed in the Bosa locality, based on a Poisson regression model. Meteorological data was collected (precipitation and humidity) Provided by the IDEAM, also information about atmospheric pollution by the RMCAB (PM10, PM2,5, CO, O3, SO2 and NO2) and finally mortality data obtained from the Bogotá district health secretariat. Starting from the gathering of this information, a statistic analysis using the STATA 11 was made, that creates an independent model for each one of the analyzed diseases and develops combinations for each one of them, in such way that they relate to each other revealing an effect. Also in this model was taken into account the relative risk (RR), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian (BIC), Pearson correlation and variance inflation factor (VIF). Results: Results: In the Locality of Bosa, 10,629 deaths were recorded during the period analyzed (2009 - 2014), where 24.76% of the total of these are attributed to cardiopulmonary diseases associated with the exposure of the concentration of pollutants; however, a comparison was made according to Resolution 610 of 2010 and that established by the who air quality guidelines, where the PM10 24 hours during the study period exceeds the maximum daily allowance according to the who with a value of 77.84 μg/m3 (SD = ± 24.8). Finally, for mortality due to cardiopulmonary cause, in the group of all ages, an increase in risk of 3.3% was observed (95% CI: -7.381%, 15.224%) due to an increase of 11.25 μg/m3 of PM2,5 with a day late (Lag 1) where no value was statistically significant. On the other hand, cerebrovascular diseases registered six statistically significant values for all ages where the maximum average of 8 hours of O3 increased 5 ppb increasing the risk by 17.66% (95% CI: 0.33%; 38.03%) combined with the maximum hourly CO concentration with a percentage of 23.05% (95% CI: 4.08%, 45.47%). Conclusions: Cardiopulmonary mortality had statistically significant results for adults older than 65 years, where an association between O3 and SO2 pollutants was found, increasing the risk for the population during the whole time series analyzed. 2009 - 2014, directly affecting the health of the population that is located in Bosa; On the other hand, it is shown that cerebrovascular diseases prevail due to having a higher percentage of risk over the population for all ages, this disease being the most representative of the study carried out.