Análisis de Literatura sobre la Implementación de la Regla Fiscal en Colombia: Implicaciones en la Sostenibilidad Fiscal del País entre 2020 y 2024

Abstract

Colombia's fiscal rule faced unprecedented challenges during 2020-2024 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences, raising questions about its effectiveness as an instrument of budgetary discipline and fiscal sustainability in emerging economies. Objective to conduct a literature analysis on the implementation of Colombia's fiscal rule between 2020 and 2024, in order to evaluate its implications for the country's fiscal sustainability. A qualitative approach with descriptive method was employed through systematic documentary review of 40 documents including laws, decrees, technical reports and academic articles published between January 2020 and December 2024, using specific inclusion and exclusion criteria and a documentary analysis matrix for information systematization. Results was the fiscal rule underwent substantial transformations including temporary suspension in 2020, normative reformulation through Law 2155 of 2021 establishing new Structural Net Primary Balance parameters, introduction of One-Time Transactions equivalent to 1.9% of GDP in 2024, and fiscal deficit deterioration to 6.8% of GDP. Primary spending increased structurally by 4.0% of GDP compared to pre-pandemic trends, while net debt reached 60.0% of GDP, exceeding the 55% anchor. Discussions: There is tension between formal and substantive compliance with the fiscal rule, with debates about the effectiveness of flexibility mechanisms and the need for structural reforms that address budgetary rigidity and corruption as limiting factors for fiscal sustainability.