Gestión hídrica en la cuenca alta del río chicamocha ante cambio climático en Tunja, Boyacá

Abstract

This research analyzes water resource management in the upper basin of the Chicamocha River in Tunja (Boyacá), Colombia, in the context of climate change impacts. This basin plays a key role in supplying water for human consumption, agriculture, and other economic activities in the region. However, in recent decades several challenges have emerged, including climate variability, increasing water demand, contamination from wastewater discharges, and pressure from agricultural activities, which have affected both the availability and quality of water resources. The main objective of the study is to propose lines of action for integrated and adaptive water resource management, considering the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological system of the basin. To achieve this, the research is structured in several methodological phases. First, a hydrological, climatic, and geomorphological characterization of the basin is carried out using meteorological station data, statistical analysis of variables such as precipitation and temperature, and the use of indicators such as the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) to evaluate hydrological risk. Next, a hydrological and climate modeling process is developed using geospatial tools such as QGIS and the QSWAT extension, which allows the simulation of the basin’s hydrological behavior under different climate scenarios. This modeling analyzes variables such as runoff, infiltration, relative humidity, sediment transport, and flood-risk areas, helping to evaluate how these processes could change in the future due to climate change. Based on the results obtained, the study identifies several vulnerabilities in the hydrological system, mainly related to precipitation variability, rising temperatures, human pressures on the territory, and the pollution of the Chicamocha River, which has been considered one of the most environmentally impacted rivers in Colombia. These conditions highlight the need to strengthen water planning and management processes within the basin. Finally, the research proposes strategies for integrated and adaptive water resource management aimed at improving the sustainability of the hydrological system, strengthening water governance, promoting efficient water use, and increasing territorial resilience to climate change impacts. These actions are intended to support decision-making by institutions and local stakeholders, contributing to ensuring water availability for present and future generations.