Relación Entre la Contaminación por Material Particulado (PM10 y PM2,5) y la Tasa de Mortalidad por Enfermedades Respiratorias en Bogotá D.C (2018-2022): un Análisis Considerando Modelos Espacio-temporales

Abstract

Air pollution represents a significant risk to human health, as such externalities directly affect the quality of life of millions of human beings around the world, thus, the scientific community widely supports the link between pollution and respiratory diseases. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2019, ``approximately 37% of premature deaths related to outdoor air pollution were due to ischaemic heart disease and stroke, 18% and 23% to chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and acute respiratory infections, respectively, and 11% to respiratory tract cancer'' [World Health Organization, 2022]. Therefore, it is relevant to analyse the relationship between air pollution by particulate matter (PM_{10} and PM_{2.5}) and the mortality rate due to acute respiratory diseases in the city of Bogotá D.C. for the period 2018-2022, generating a reference point that allows us to visualise and mitigate this problem.

For this purpose, spatial and spatio-temporal models, which combine the spatial and temporal dimension to analyse geographically dispersed data recorded at different points in time, were used, these models allow capturing the spatial and temporal variation of air pollution and mortality, considering spatial and temporal autocorrelation, trends over time, prediction of future values and the interaction between variables in space and time. The findings suggest the need to implement effective measures to control air pollution and reduce mortality from respiratory diseases, highlighting the relevance of considering geographic location and time periods in planning interventions to mitigate the negative impacts of air pollution on the health of Bogotá's inhabitants.