Incidencia de las variables climáticas en los rendimientos de los cultivos transitorios en la provincia del Alto Magdalena 1992-2013 

Abstract

Currently, climate change is a phenomenon that has become more important because it significantly affects the agricultural sector and food security, which makes it necessary to measure and quantify its impact in order to make decisions. Thus, the objective of this project is to evaluate the incidence of climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) as a result of climate change on the yields of transitory crops in the province of Alto Magdalena, in order to design strategies for adapting to climate change. Thus, the methodology used to achieve this objective is based firstly on the collection and analysis of production data on transitory crops: maize, sorghum, rice and cotton; hectares sown and harvested in the province of Alto Magdalena, allowing for a characterisation and estimation of the production function, inserting the climatic variables of temperature and precipitation in which their impacts are estimated; Second, the quantification of the economic effect of climate change on agricultural production and on the yields of transitory crops will be done under the Ricardian Model "This model is based on the theory that, in competitive markets, the value of land represents the present value of the expected net income derived from the efficient use of land" Ramirez et al, (2010: 9).