Sostenibilidad fiscal de la política de matrícula cero en la Escuela Nacional de Carabineros "Alfonso López Pumarejo" (ESCAR) 2025-2026

Abstract

This research analyzes the fiscal sustainability of the free-tuition policy established by Decree 1907 of 2023 for the National Carabineros School “Alfonso López Pumarejo” (ESCAR) during the 2025-2026 period. Given the scarcity of studies on the financing of higher education in the training schools of the security forces, the study contrasts the budget appropriations and their execution allocated through the National General Budget with the projected demand of beneficiaries, in order to determine whether the resources are sufficient. It follows a mixed-methods approach with a quantitative emphasis and a descriptive-analytical scope, combining documentary analysis of the regulatory framework with an examination of the defense sector’s budget series. The theoretical framework brings together fiscal sustainability, institutional theory and social sustainability. The findings show that, in fiscal year 2025, the benefit reached a coverage of 92.73 % and represented 25.25 % of the School's appropriation; resources were sufficient to meet demand, although the benefit already absorbs a quarter of the appropriation. The study provides evidence on the sustainability risks of the policy and on the need for monitoring mechanisms disaggregated by institution.