Análisis comparativo de caudales máximos en un multiescenario de cambio climático en la cuenca del río blanco-negro-Guayuriba, Meta.

Abstract

In recent decades, global climate change has been generating environmental, social and economic impacts of natural and anthropogenic causes, from which highlights the increase of greenhouse gases, changes in land use and radiative forcing. The objective of this project is to evaluate the variation of maximum flows in the context of climate change from the rainfall-runoff modelling in the Blanco-Negro-Guayuriba river basin. The research problem is focused on the influence of the variability of precipitation on maximum flows, for different periods of projection of the climate change multispectrum established by the IDEAM. To do this, an estimation was made by simulating a rainfall-runoff model through the HEC-HMS program. Among the results, there was a decrease in the maximum flow rates ranging between -15 and -24% from a current maximum flow of 1179 m3/s with a period of occurrence of 50 years. Finally, greater control is recommended in mining methods for trawling material and studies that are related to water supply and demand, taking into account the rainy and drought seasons in the basin.