Diseño y validación económica de un modelo de simulación para generar presupuestos de producción de panela en el páramo, Santander

Abstract

Research in Colombia, under net income criteria, generally shows that agricultural activities are profitable even though these do not generate an economic surplus to the farmer, to pay in full production factors. Seeking to test that hypothesis, this study developed and validated an investment and production budgets of panela generator, using simulation techniques and data from a representative trapiche panelero located in the township of Paramo, Santander. Results in terms of profitability indicators (NPV, IRR, B:C) and remuneration to factors did not confirm that hypothesis. However, sensitivity analysis of these indicators: prices of labor, panela, supplies, and equipment as well as utilization of installed capacity, propose that this productive activity is sensitive to changes above 10% in these parameters, because of the current relations between prices, production technology and scale of operation of the trapiche. The present research is oriented at generating reliable information about the economic performance of panela production through design and validation of a simulation model for budgets Panela production at the township Paramo, Santander. The model specifies revenues and total costs of production, allowing determining the profitability and economic surplus derived from the operation by the producer. The study corresponds to an investigation of adaptive type; to achieve the objective were employed primary and secondary sources. Were developed activities such as: literature review, selection of a representative trapiche, data collection in the field through structured survey and design and construction of a computerized model generator budgets using a MSExcel platform. The choice of the representative trapiche was done under the following criteria: high representativeness of the available technology in the area and the intensive use of capacity installed of grinding. This in order to build an inclusive budget model of panelera activity, that would allow to simulate different scenarios and production systems of panela in the area. The design of model generator budgets was conducted under the structure of a typical investment and operating budget for the production of panela and criteria of net income as a basic indicator of economic performance of productive activity. The results of the analysis do not support the central hypothesis of the study under the specified terms resourcing and services, pricing, technology and scale of operating the trapiche under study.