Evaluación de la oferta hídrica disponible para el sistema de abastecimiento del municipio de Ibagué ante escenarios de cambio climático

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dc.contributor.advisorCañon Ramos, Miguel Angel
dc.contributor.authorBallesteros Cantor, Eduwar Steven
dc.contributor.corporatenameUniversidad Santo Tomas
dc.contributor.cvlachttps://scienti.minciencias.gov.co/cvlac/visualizador/generarCurriculoCv.do?cod_rh=0001610917
dc.contributor.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6812-450X
dc.contributor.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0009-0003-5419-8665
dc.date.accessioned2026-05-08T16:58:39Z
dc.date.available2026-05-08T16:58:39Z
dc.date.issued2026-05-07
dc.descriptionEl presente documento denominado la evaluación de la oferta hídrica disponible para el sistema de abastecimiento del municipio de Ibagué frente a escenarios de cambio climático, se toma el área de estudio de la cuenca del río Combeima, principal fuente de abastecimiento de agua potable para la población. El desarrollo de este proyecto surge ante la necesidad de analizar el impacto de la variabilidad climática, disminución observada en caudales. La metodología del estudio se desarrolló en tres etapas, en la primera se realizó la recopilación, depuración y análisis de información hidrometeorológica, incluye precipitación, temperatura, evatranspiración y caudales, evaluando los criterios de calidad, completitud y consistencia estadística. De forma paralela, se ejecutó la morfometría de la cuenca mediante herramientas SIG y modelos digitales de elevación, permitiendo comprender el comportamiento hidrológico. La segunda etapa se implementa el modelo hidrológico GR4J, el cual fue calibrado y validado utilizando series históricas diarias de caudales, precipitación y evatranspiración potencial. La modelación permite simular el comportamiento hidrológico de la cuenca y estimar la oferta hídrica bajo las condiciones actuales. Seguido a ello, para la tercera etapa, se evaluó la oferta hídrica futura mediante la incorporación de proyecciones climáticas a partir del sexto informe de evaluación del IPCC, utilizando modelos de circulación global y escenarios socioeconómicos SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 y SSP5-8.5. Las proyecciones fueron ajustadas por medio de procesos de downscaling, corrección de sesgos y ensamblé REA, generando series futuras diarias de precipitación, temperatura y evatranspiración potencial que alimentan el modelo hidrológico para la simulación de caudales futuros. Los resultados evidencian una disminución progresiva de la oferta hídrica disponible bajo los diferentes escenarios climáticos, acompañado de un incremento de la demanda asociado al crecimiento poblacional. La comparación entre oferta y demanda demuestra condiciones de déficit hídrico, especialmente en escenarios de mayores emisiones, comprometiendo la sostenibilidad del abastecimiento a largo plazo. Finalmente, se propone unas recomendaciones de adaptación orientas a la gestión eficiente de la demanda, la protección de ecosistemas reguladores, fortalecimiento del almacenamiento hídrico y la planificación del recurso bajo los criterios de cambio climático. Estos resultados permiten construir un insumo técnico para toma de decisiones en la gestión integral del agua y la planificación territorial del municipio de Ibagué.
dc.description.abstractThis document, entitled "Evaluation of the Available Water Supply for the Ibagué Municipality's Water System Under Climate Change Scenarios," focuses on the Combeima River basin, the main source of drinking water for the population. This project arose from the need to analyze the impact of climate variability and the observed decrease in river flows. The study methodology was developed in three stages. The first stage involved the collection, refinement, and analysis of hydrometeorological data, including precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and flows, evaluating the criteria of quality, completeness, and statistical consistency. Simultaneously, the basin's morphometry was carried out using GIS tools and digital elevation models, allowing for an understanding of its hydrological behavior. The second stage involved implementing the GR4J hydrological model, which was calibrated and validated using daily historical series of flows, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. This model allows for the simulation of the basin's hydrological behavior and the estimation of water supply under current conditions. Following this, for the third stage, future water supply was evaluated by incorporating climate projections from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, using global circulation models and socioeconomic scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The projections were adjusted through downscaling, bias correction, and REA assembly processes, generating future daily series of precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration that feed the hydrological model for simulating future flows. The results show a progressive decrease in available water supply under the different climate scenarios, accompanied by an increase in demand associated with population growth. The comparison between supply and demand demonstrates water deficit conditions, especially in scenarios with higher emissions, compromising the long-term sustainability of the water supply. Finally, adaptation recommendations are proposed, focusing on efficient demand management, the protection of regulatory ecosystems, strengthening water storage, and resource planning under climate change criteria. These results provide a technical input for decision-making in integrated water management and territorial planning for the municipality of Ibagué.
dc.description.degreelevelMaestríaspa
dc.description.degreenameMagister en Gestión de Cuencas Hidrográficasspa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationBallesteros Cantor, E. (2026).Evaluación de la oferta hídrica disponible para el sistema de abastecimiento del municipio de Ibagué ante escenarios de cambio climático. [Trabajo de Maestría, Universidad Santo Tomás]. Repositorio Institucional.
dc.identifier.instnameinstname:Universidad Santo Tomásspa
dc.identifier.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad Santo Tomásspa
dc.identifier.repourlrepourl:https://repository.usta.edu.cospa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11634/72347
dc.language.isospa
dc.publisherUniversidad Santo Tomásspa
dc.publisher.branchCRAI-USTA Bogotá
dc.publisher.facultyFacultad de Ciencias Ambientalesspa
dc.publisher.programMaestría Gestión de Cuencas Hidrográficasspa
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dc.relation.referencesUniversidad de Ibagué. (2024). Ficha de caracterización municipio de Ibagué.
dc.relation.referencesWang, S., Leslie, L., Rai, T., Speer, M., & Kuleshov, Y. (2020). Analysis of a southerly buster event and associated solitary waves. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 69(1), 205–215. https://doi.org/10.1071/es19015
dc.relation.referencesWilby, R. L., Charles, S. P., Zorita, E., Timbal, B., Whetton, P., & Mearns, L. O. (2004). Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical Downscaling Methods Document history.
dc.relation.referencesWilks Daniel. (2006). Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences Second Edition.
dc.relation.referencesWood, A. W., Leung, L. R., Sridhar, V., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2004). HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO DOWNSCALING CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS.
dc.relation.referencesWorld Meteorological Organization. (2008). Guide to Hydrological Practice Volume I Hydrology-From Measurement to Hydrological Information.
dc.relation.referencesYu, C., Gao, B., & Muñoz-Carpena, R. (2012). Effect of dense vegetation on colloid transport and removal in surface runoff. Journal of Hydrology, 434–435, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2012.02.042
dc.relation.referencesYue, S., & Wang, C. Y. (2002). Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resources Research, 38(6), 4-1-4–7. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001wr000861
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Colombiaen
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.localAbierto (Texto Completo)spa
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/co/
dc.subject.keywordWater supply
dc.subject.keywordClimate change
dc.subject.keywordHydrological modeling
dc.subject.keywordGR4J
dc.subject.lembGestión de Cuencas Hidrográficas
dc.subject.lembGestión del agua
dc.subject.lembCambio climático
dc.subject.proposalOferta hídrica
dc.subject.proposalCambio climático
dc.subject.proposalModelación hidrológica
dc.subject.proposalGR4J
dc.titleEvaluación de la oferta hídrica disponible para el sistema de abastecimiento del municipio de Ibagué ante escenarios de cambio climático
dc.typemaster thesis
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc
dc.type.coarversionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.driveinfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
dc.type.localTesis de maestríaspa
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion

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Maestría Gestión de Cuencas Hidrográficas