Efectos económicos generados por el tratado de libre comercio (TLC) con Estados Unidos en el sector cafetero colombiano para el período 2005 – 2022

Abstract

Free trade agreements are agreements that are practiced by several countries around the planet; these treaties create free trade zones between two or more countries. An example of an FTA is the one signed by Colombia and the United States in 2012, where tariff preferences were agreed for the marketing of coffee, which is Colombia's flagship product and represents an important part of national agricultural production. Therefore, this work aims to analyze the economic effect generated by the FTA with the US in the Colombian coffee sector. The investigation was of a mixed nature; The data collection was qualitative and quantitative, the sources of information used were primary and secondary; The data that was used was collected from the open databases of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE). Qualitative data was also collected through interviews with experts from the Colombian agricultural sector; The period of the selected data was 2005-2022 to cover years before and after the entry into force of the treaty. The data were analyzed using the ARIMA and smoothing econometric models; In addition, with these data, a continuous regression was carried out to predict the behavior of the coffee sector between the years 2023-2033. The results showed that the tariff was eliminated to export coffee to the United States, this elimination allowed the income received by Colombian exporters to increase over the years, an increase in yield per hectare and the valuation given to it was also evident. overlooks Colombian coffee; The FTA also generated an increase in the import of organic chemical products.