Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad de los medios de vida de productores de mora de castilla (Rubus glaucus Benth) ante el cambio climático (Estudio de caso: Cuenca del rio Subía sector Monterrico- Vereda Agua Bonita).

Abstract

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) states that the global surface temperature will increase by 1.5 ºC. Climate change could affect agriculture in various ways, and almost all are a risk to the food security of the world's most vulnerable people (Alarcón, 2017).This work aims to know how climate change violates the livelihoods of blackberry producers (R. glaucus Benth) in the Monterrico sector located in the Subía River basin (Silvania municipality). Indicators were initially formulated for the development of this research to determine the vulnerability (high, medium and low) of human, social, physical, natural and financial capital; subsequently, official climate change scenarios of differences in precipitation and average temperature were analyzed for the years 2011-2040 vs 1976-2005, 2041-2070 vs 1976-2005 and 2071-2100 vs 1976-2005, the results obtained made it known that a temperature increase is projected to be 0.51 ºC – 0.8; 1.01-1.2 ºC and 1.6-1.8 ºC respectively, as well as precipitation will increase 11-20% in the three scenarios projected for the study area. These increases in climate variables will impact the health of communities, influence the deterioration of social infrastructures, production and state of the roads; and in cultivation is estimated increase of pests and diseases, the reduction of flowering, affecting fruit formation, decrease of photosynthesis due to the constant cloudiness affecting production, which affects the level of investment of agricultural activity by reducing the gains of the subsistence base of the agriculture producers. The impacts of climate change coupled with high vulnerability in livelihoods: human (Sisben and low level of study, advanced age >50 years, little use of family labor); (Low level of organization and relationship with weak institutions) and financial institutions (Zero savings and high indebtedness), as well as moderate vulnerability in physical (vias in regular state) and natural capital (exploitation of natural resources and land-use conflict) would not allow small producers of Monterrico castile blackberry to minimize or face with solvency the adverse effects of climate change , for this reason governance and governance by some of the local governments in articulation with regional governments will be indispensable to increase the resilience of this rural community to climate change, as well as the adaptation measures proposed in this research for each capital aimed at preventing and mitigating those most significant impacts of climate change in order to increase adaptive capacity and become a model of vulnerability characterization to be replicated in other agriculture communities.