Evaluacion de la probabilidad de fallo en el suministro de agua influenciadas por cambio climatico y de usos del suelo en cuencas andinas. Caso de estudio cuenca del río coello

Abstract

Hydroclimatic situations of water scarcity affect the hydrological services offered by the Andean basins, causing serious impacts to the different hydrodependent sectors. These situations have become a great challenge for decision makers regarding the management of water resources in periods of drought. This project aims to evaluate the probability of failure in the water supply that provide support for decision-making regarding the satisfaction of the demands of consumable, non-consumable and environmental uses in periods of scarcity, by applying the general methodology for evaluating the probability of failure in water resources systems, taking into account the joint influence of climate change and land use.

The Coello river basin, located in the department of Tolima, occupies 7.8% of the department and its importance lies in the fact that it is the source that supplies several municipalities, including the capital of the department, and is one of the most irrigated districts important in the country and contributes for hydroelectric generation. Given its occupation and its intervention, the water use index for this basin has a value of 0.77 (cortolima, 2006); therefore, it is very close to the scarcity of the resource, with serious effects for the population settled in this basin.

This work gives continuity to the project developed within the framework of the FODEIN 2019 call entitled "Risk assessment of failure in water supply in Andean basins influenced by climate change", in which various situations of decreased water availability are evaluated, taking into account only in consideration of weather conditions.