Análisis empírico de la incidencia de las tasas de interés en la evolución de los montos de recursos administrados en los fondos voluntarios de pensiones y CDT en Colombia (2007-2025)

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between changes in the Central Bank of Colombia’s (Banco de la República) policy rate and the behavior of savings managed through Certificates of Deposit (CDT) and Voluntary Pension Funds (FVP). Using historical information from 2007–2025, four econometric models were estimated: two focused on assessing the relationship between the policy rate and the growth rates of CDT and FVP, and two additional models that examine how the Central Bank’s Nominal Rate directly affects the amounts managed in each instrument. The main objective is to evaluate the impact of the intervention rate on the evolution of managed savings volumes, using a correlational approach that identifies response patterns between the analyzed series. The results show that CDT exhibit greater sensitivity to monetary policy movements, consistent with the models that revealed stronger statistical significance and higher positive coefficients. Specifically, a 1% increase in the policy rate is associated with a rise of approximately 7.18% in CDT balances, highlighting their short-term nature and rapid response to changes in financial returns. In contrast, FVP maintain more stable behavior and are less dependent on monetary fluctuations, as confirmed by the low coefficients and reduced R² values across the models, reflecting their long-term savings orientation. These differences help explain how households reallocate savings under different interest rate scenarios and provide insights to strengthen savings management in contexts of high financial volatility.