Modelación de lluvias anuales utilizando inteligencia artificial en el norte de Bogotá

Abstract

The phenomenon of the boy and the girl child are events that have always manifested themselves throughout the history of Colombia’s climate, presenting catastrophes and emergencies in the country. These climatic events generate increases or decreases in precipitation in the Colombian territory, for this reason the IDEAM in 2012 carried out a study called "Precipitation Alterations and Temperature Before Variability and Climate Change for the City of Bogota" (Ruiz & Escobar, 2012). In order to make a diagnosis of the effects of climate change in the city of Bogota. Within the study carried out by the IDEAM, alterations were found in current rainfall levels compared to historical records, establishing that Bogota is a climate change scenario, for this reason each locality of the city will be a study area in order to determine which areas would be most affected by the increase or decrease in rainfall. The spatial distribution of rainfall in the city of Bogotá shows minimum rainfall values in the town of Suba with respect to the other localities, evidencing variation in rainfall in recent decades. Given these situations, the locality of Suba is taken as a study area with a delimitation that does not cover the entire locality. The study area and effects on events such as the child, lead to a model that can calibrate the behavior of rainfall, in order to establish an analysis of current behavior and generate a database that helps define a more consistent behavior of rainfall in future studies in this area of the city of Bogota. For this reason, it was decided to develop the study on the campus of the University of Santo Tomás, in which a meteorological station of the CAR is located and in accordance with the study carried out by the IDEAM, is located in a locality with the lowest rainfall records in the city.