Estimación de Trampas de Pobreza Multidimensional Mediante un Enfoque de Acumulación de Activos en el Sector Rural Colombiano en los Años 2019 al 2023.

Abstract

Multidimensional poverty in rural areas of Colombia manifests itself as a structural and persistent phenomenon, characterized by the unequal distribution of assets and opportunities. This paper analyzes the existence of multidimensional poverty traps through an asset accumulation approach, using departmental panel data from the National Quality of Life Survey (ECV) for the years 2019, 2021, and 2023. Through techniques such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and nonparametric regressions (LOWESS), critical thresholds in income and asset dynamics were identified. It was found that a large portion of rural households are concentrated in a zone of diminishing marginal returns around a monthly income of $1,098,000, evidencing the presence of structural poverty traps. The results show that households only manage to escape these traps when they exceed an asset level of 0.95, while the majority remain trapped in low-accumulation equilibria. These findings empirically validate the multiple equilibria theory proposed by Barrett and Carter, providing novel, nationwide evidence on the structural limitations of Colombian rural areas. Consequently, they suggest the need to design territorially differentiated public policies that strengthen the accumulation of productive, social, and human assets, in order to break intergenerational cycles of poverty and promote sustainable rural development.