Efecto del Recaudo Fiscal en la Desigualdad de Ingresos en Colombia para el Periodo 2008-2021

Abstract

Territorial inequalities in Colombia have been widely debated, particularly because, despite the use of instruments such as fiscal policy to reduce them, they continue to persist. Although economic theory recognizes the redistributive potential of taxes and transfers, empirical evidence linking tax revenues to inequality remains limited. In this context, this paper aims to identify the effect of tax revenues on inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, across Colombian departments over the 2008–2021 period. To address this objective, a balanced panel is constructed for 23 departments, and one- and two-way fixed-effects panel data models are estimated, progressively incorporating different sources of public revenues alongside social and economic controls. The main results show an inverse relationship between tax revenues and inequality, which is more stable when revenues are measured at the aggregated municipal level rather than at the departmental level. Once social controls—particularly the incidence of monetary poverty—are included, the effect of departmental tax revenues loses statistical significance, whereas municipal revenues remain stable and significant. This suggests that social conditions are strongly associated with inequality, while municipal fiscal revenues retain an independent effect on the Gini coefficient. finally, the findings highlight the importance of strengthening municipal fiscal capacity and aligning it with targeted social policies to reduce inequality gaps.