Predicción Por Medio De Simulación Montecarlo De Los Resultados Del Campeonato De Fútbol De Serie A 2021-2022-2023

Abstract

The main objective of this project is to simulate the next three seasons of the Italian team Juventus in Turin, to apply the knowledge acquired in the field of Advanced Simulation of Processes. This was also carried out by means of the Monte Carlo simulation, which groups together other necessary tests such as uniformity and independence for random numbers. Based on these other processes, it was decided to apply the Chi-square and Kolmogorov methods for the uniformity component, and as for the independence component, we work with the Poker and Runs methods. By means of logical, mathematical and probabilistic relationships that integrate the behavior of the system, it is possible to simulate the seasons 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23, where in the first 29 games won, 5 tied and 4 lost with probabilities were obtained. occurrence of 76.3%, 13.2% and 10.5%, for the second season studied there were 28 games won, 7 tied and 3 lost with probability of occurrence of 73.7%, 18.4% and 7 , 9% and for the last one, 30 games were won, 4 tied and 4 lost with probabilities of occurrence of 78.9%, 10.5% and 10.5%. These results recreate the simulation of a system according to certain criteria, to bring the most probable scenario that the Juventus team has in its next seasons closer to reality.