Análisis de los efectos económicos en las relaciones comerciales entre Colombia-Chile a partir de la entrada en vigor de su TLC (2009-2016)

Abstract

The present study analyzes the economic effects of the commercial relations between Colombia and Chile from the implementation of its Free Trade Agreement in 2009. In the same way, the performance of imports and exports in search of economic sectors, according to the international industrial classification uniform, was studied, more benefited and affected. Also, the development in the dynamics of foreign direct investment performed between the two countries. At the same time, to predict the trade flow and to determine the performance and economic effects of Colombia and Chile, it was executed by means of the gravitational model, being an econometric method that allows to establish with the main variables of the trade, the impact and the economic effects that entail the commercial relations of the countries with commercial agreements. Finally, the data used to construct the gravitational model were: imports, exports, distance, exchange rate and real income of each country. Bilateral trade of the two countries was benefited since the trade flow increased between the period of analysis, in addition, Colombia maintained a surplus trade balance in comparison with Chile. Likewise, the sectors most benefited were: Manufacturing, Agriculture, livestock, hunting and related services and mining and quarrying. On the other hand, the sector most affected was information and communications. In the case of investments, Colombia was a large recipient of Chile's investment in wholesale and retail trade and partly in the energy sector. Moreover, the Colombian capital invested in Chile was mainly in the financial sector and manufacturing industries. Finally, the gravitational model fulfilled all the assumptions, making it clear that the trade agreement benefits the two economies and stimulated their production. In conclusion, the trade agreement favored the two countries, increasing bilateral trade, investment, production, employment and opportunities for Chilean and Colombian companies. In addition, the commercial flow for the next two years will continue to increase.