Predicción física y matemática de la presencia de Aedes aegypti y análisis en relación con la disponibilidad del recurso hídrico teniendo en cuenta los extremos de temperatura

Abstract

The main vector of urban yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya and zika is the Aedes aegypti mosquito, with the geographical distribution of this species in Colombia up to 1800 meters above sea level and in Málaga Santander at 2200 meters above sea level, but it is expected to expand due to global warming and socioeconomic and cultural factors increase its distribution and as indicators we have the housing index that allows us to know the percentage of homes infested with larvae or pupae, which are found in natural or artificial deposits that are maintained by the little or interrupted availability of Drinking water resource in some municipalities of the country that forces the inadequate storage due to the limited supply of the resource in question. This work seeks to develop a new methodology that characterizes the dynamics of the housing index and allows to establish objective predictions of its dynamics, analyzing its fluctuations in analogy with probabilistic random walk, this is a theoretical probabilistic model with representations of random walks, which allows limit the dynamics and find predictive numerical values whitin certain ranges to determine the evolution of its dynamics. This methodology has allowed us to characterize the evolution of the annual dynamics of the number of infected by dengue in Colombia, as well as childhood obesity in the United States, achieving predictions of practical application in public health in both cases. Since the fluctuations of the housing index is an irregular and complex phenomenon, it can be studied from the Brownian movement. A prediction of the behavior of the housing index (IV) will be made from the previously developed methodology Rodríguez et al., And their values will be compared with the real values ​​for specific time periods of records of the National Institute of Health, in order to confirm the predictive ability of the method. The methodology of the present proposal could be useful in the planning of public health interventions for the control of the Aedes aegypti infestation.